The semiconductor industry has long been changed to the hegemony war between countries, not competition between companies. Invisible international relations and logic of power works. The United States is demanding to create a semiconductor chip four alliance (tentative name) that tie us and Japan-Taiwan. But it’s not just welcome. China, which is our biggest export market, is on checking every day, which may lose its market. We listened to the opinions of nine industry-university experts and looked at what our way was. [Editor]
While the Korean government is thinking about participating in the US-led semiconductor chip (Korea, the United States, Japan, Taiwan) alliance, the semiconductor industry and academia have to cooperate with the semiconductor chip 4 alliance. The biggest reason is that in order to produce semiconductors, cooperation with the United States and Japan with IP cores, design and equipment capabilities are inevitable.
GDNET Korea conducted a relay interview with nine domestic semiconductor experts and economic researchers over the past 10 years and the ‘Chip 4 Alliance’, which will be an important choice for the next 10 and 20 years of the Korean semiconductor industry and ecosystem..
In this interview, Kim Hyung-jun, the head of the next-generation intelligent semiconductor business division, Yoo Jae-hee, vice chairman of the semiconductor engineering society, professor of electronic engineering at Hongik University, research fellow at the Economic and Security Team of the Korea Institute of Foreign Economic Policy, Hong Dae-soon, CEO of Global Strategic Policy Research Institute Nine people, including A and B, representatives of domestic semiconductor companies, participated. As it is sensitive to national economic security, some experts demanded anonymity to the article.
*Kim Hyung-jun, Director of the next-generation intelligent semiconductor project, Yoo Jae-hee, vice chairman of the semiconductor engineering society, professor of electronic engineering at Hongik University
*Professor C, L, Y Mo, Domestic Semiconductor Engineering, Korea Semiconductor Company L, S Mo
■ Chip 4 You have to participate in the alliance… If you can’t make a semiconductor, you can’t sell it
Semiconductor and economic experts reported by G-Dinet Korea have a common opinion that Korea will have no choice but to cooperate with the Chip 4 alliance.
Kim Hyung-jun, head of the next-generation intelligent semiconductor business unit, said, It will be advantageous for our country to join the Chip 4 alliance. Kim said, The United States has strong fabless companies such as Qualcomm and Broadcom, as well as semiconductor design technology and equipment. Taiwan and Japan are building a semiconductor Alliance, and if Korea does not join four chips, it is likely to be a loner.
Taiwan TSMC is building a semiconductor factory in Kumato Prefecture in collaboration with Sony, Japan, and is building a new semiconductor plant in Arizona, USA.
The semiconductor industry is concerned that Korea will not be able to produce the semiconductor itself if it is not supplied with semiconductor equipment and EDA (EDA) from the United States. Three of the top five semiconductor equipment (Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA) are US companies. EDA is also a US company, synopsis (33%share) and Cadence (23%).
The joining of the chip 4 is not a matter of choice, but a matter of survival, said L., a semiconductor company. It is expected to come. If you can’t make a chip, you can’t sell it, so you have to work with the United States.
Hong Dae-soon, CEO of Global Strategic Policy Research Institute, said, If Korea is receiving various semiconductor technology sanctions in the worst scenario, it will not be possible to make semiconductors even with production capacity. Huawei fell from the US-China trade war and fell from the world’s smartphone market share from 1st and 2nd place in the world, with semiconductor technology and supply sanctions from the United States.
Hong emphasized, Considering this extreme scenario, we should think from a very different strategic point of view.
He said, The 21st century semiconductor is interlocked with economic and security, so it is necessary to finance the industry. We need to look at the chip 4 from the point of view that it can be an important driving force for local creation.
The chip 4 seems to be very similar to the IPEF (India-Pacific Economic Framework), said Yonwon-ho, a researcher at the Korea Institute of Economic Policy. Cooperation is enough to do.
** ■ Chip 4 subscription conditions, you should lead the advantage of it… It’s not a matter of decision.
The semiconductor academia argues that even if Korea participates in the Chip 4 and cooperates with it, it should lead the condition of subscription for national interests.
Yoo Jae-hee, vice chairman of the semiconductor engineering society and professor of electronic engineering at Hongik University, said, We must join Chip 4 in order to maintain the gap between semiconductor technology, but it is true that China’s retaliation is true. I have no choice but to take a tightrope.
He then said, We should try to lead the terms of chip 4 for national interests. We need to actively persuade the United States to ease the restriction on exports to China, and provide carrots to China.
Professor Yoo added, In order to make up for the export of China, which is expected to shrink, it is necessary to secure a lever on the market development and expansion of the US or Europe to stabilize exports and balance it. However, this is possible when Korea maintains a technical gap in the memory and foundry fields, while securing lack of fabless and system semiconductor technology that is insufficient to maintain the technology advantage as a comprehensive semiconductor company.
There was also an opinion that 4 chips should be delayed as much as possible.
Professor C, a professor of semiconductor, said, If you sign up for 4 chips because of the US pressure, you can lose the Chinese market, which accounts for a large portion of semiconductor overseas exports. It is also a way to suspend or delay 4 chips as much as possible. However, Korea has no justification to refuse to join four chips.
He said, We may be able to reverse the plan to include the European Union (EU) in Chip 5, not Chip 4, he said. I will be able to earn. He then predicted, If the EU attempting to be a semiconductor enters the chip 5, it will serve as a leverage, reducing the risk that Korea will take.
Professor C also advised, If the government has no choice but to join the Chip 4, plan B should make another request to the United States. Losses can occur in semiconductor exports, so the government should be able to negotiate with the United States so that it can be a loss compensation in other US exports, and if we have any desire in the security sector, we should ask them to be implemented. Like Australia, we have to replace the development of nuclear submarine technology and relocate some of the technologies to big deals.
On the other hand, S-Mo, a semiconductor company, said, Ideal and realistic are different problems. There is no gathering power to be able to enter the chip 5 in Europe, he said. It is rarely seen in Europe except for German semiconductor companies and automobile-related companies.
■ I can’t retaliate like THAAD
If Korea participates in the Chip 4 alliance, the most concerned issue is the economic retaliation for our company, as in the past THAAD deployment. At that time, the Chinese government withdrew its business by Korean distribution companies, including Lotte. Experts, however, observed that China will not retaliate as in Sadd.
Kim Hyung-jun, head of the next-generation intelligent semiconductor business, said, China is not as retaliated as us as Sad. He then predicted that the front retaliation will not be large even with other industries (tourism, cosmetics, entertainment, etc.).
Professor L Mo, a semiconductor engineering professor, said, If we do not supply memory, China is unfortunate. This is because China, which aims to be a semiconductor, wants to cooperate with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to secure semiconductor technology.
If China is retaliated, if China retaliates, Korea can stop exports to DRAM and NAND flash to China, he said. This is the last card to try to the end.
In the recent Ukraine-Russian war, semiconductors are lacking, so they are used to remove chips in home appliances. If Korea, which has 70%of the global memory market,, it will be damaged by China. It’s a situation.
However, in order to minimize China’s possibility of economic retaliation, even if you join the Chip 4, it is necessary to reassure and relieve stable memory supply to China without excluding certain countries.
Kim Hyung-jun said, The interests of the United States are virtually foundry, so we will not be involved in the Korean memory factory and supply in China.
Meanwhile, there was an opinion that it needed to be in a stronger position in China.
Hong Dae-soon, CEO of Global Strategic Policy Research Institute, said, Australia also has a high proportion of China’s exports and a high proportion of Chinese students. I need to confront it.
He reminded that Korea ranks 10th and Australia 14th in the economy ranking, he said. It will help national interests.
** ■ Taiwan and Japan have confirmed to join the Chip 4…
Japan and Taiwan are currently positive for the US-led chip four alliance. Japan and Taiwan, unlike us, are less concerned about China’s retaliation.
Looking at last year’s export data last year, Taiwan’s exports to China’s semiconductor exports to Taiwan are 60%, and in Japan and the United States, the dependence on exports to China is 32%, 34, respectively. It is about %, he said. Even though Taiwan has the same problem as Korea, it is necessary to pay attention to active cooperation.
If chip 4 is misunderstood as a personality of public checks, or if it is feared to retaliate, it is expected that there will be room for the two countries to cooperate.
China is receiving semiconductor materials and equipment from Japan. If Japan does not export to China, China is rather unfortunate. Taiwan also exports a large portion of system semiconductors (including foundry) to China, but it is highly dependent on China.
Japan has a technology, so even if Japan has a technology, it can be opposed to China, and China does not want a situation in Taiwan’s economy. It is impossible to retaliate in Taiwan because many of them are from Taiwan as the key talents of China’s semiconductor.